## Mental Rounding by Degrees of Ten I believe the [[Default setting|default method]] of evaluation for humans, perhaps a cognitive shortcut developed for efficiency, is to think in degrees of 10. We seem predisposed to simplify the spectrum of probability. Anything perceived as having above a 90% chance of occurring is often mentally rounded up to 100%; it's treated as a certainty, a guarantee we can bank on without reservation. Think of a 90% chance of rain leading people to cancel outdoor plans entirely, or a medical procedure with a 95% success rate being viewed as risk-free. Conversely, anything estimated below a 10% probability is frequently rounded down to 0% and effectively ignored, dismissed as practically impossible. A 5% chance of a critical system failure might be deemed negligible, not worth the resources for mitigation. This mental rounding profoundly affects how we approach concepts like control, conservation, and certainty, often leading us astray. ## Degrees of Control Degrees of control are certainly attainable in many aspects of life, but the seductive idea of total control is ultimately not possible within the complex systems we inhabit. Whether managing a project, navigating a relationship, or even steering our own bodies, there will always be some element, some variable or external force, that is not under our full command. Consider trying to perfectly orchestrate a large event; you can plan meticulously, but you cannot control the weather, a sudden traffic jam delaying key people, or an unexpected technical glitch. It is therefore critically important to identify and understand these uncontrollable elements as much as possible. This involves acknowledging risks, studying potential disruptions, and developing contingency plans, allowing us to make good, resilient decisions even amidst unpredictability. Calamity, often swift and unforgiving, will inevitably befall upon any individual or organization that operates under the illusion of complete command, only to be thrashed about by the authority of chaos – that potent mix of chance, complexity, and external influence – which was previously minimized to the point of being ignored. It is far wiser and more practical to live one's life with the clear understanding that there are inherent limits to what can be controlled, fostering adaptability rather than brittle rigidity. ## Degrees of Conservation Similarly, while we can strive to preserve things we value, anything can only be conserved to a degree, never in totality or perpetuity. The fundamental truth, observable everywhere from the cosmic scale down to our daily lives, is that everything – and I mean absolutely everything – is slowly changing, evolving, and decaying. Relationships shift, skills atrophy without practice, cherished objects wear out, memories fade, even landscapes transform over millennia. Eventually, everything that exists now will be different or gone entirely. Recognizing this constant flux means it's best not to act as though things will stay the same or last forever, because such assumptions are demonstrably false. This doesn't mean succumbing to nihilism, but rather embracing a pragmatic awareness of impermanence. Believing things are permanent can lead to complacency – taking loved ones for granted, putting off important conversations, or failing to maintain valuable assets. There will not always be a tomorrow exactly like today, nor another chance identical to the one before you now. Therefore, use what you can – your time, your resources, your relationships, your opportunities – while you have it, appreciating its current existence, because someday, inevitably, you won't be able to. ## Degrees of Certainty Finally, certainty, much like total control and permanence, is also largely an illusion when applied to the future or complex realities. While we can be certain of mathematical axioms or historical facts, absolute certainty about future events or nuanced situations is rarely justified. There is always a chance, however small, that something unlikely, unexpected, or even previously unimaginable will happen – the so-called 'black swan' event that disrupts all assumptions. For this reason alone, it's best not to treat anything projected or predicted as absolutely certain. You simply never truly know what unforeseen factor could intervene or what hidden variable might change the outcome. Additionally, the feeling of certainty can become a dangerous prison of the mind. The more certain one becomes about a particular belief, interpretation, or prediction, the more blind they often become to alternatives, counter-evidence, or different perspectives. Cognitive exploration ceases; dissenting information is dismissed or rationalized away. Once a position is deemed absolutely certain, that one narrow viewpoint becomes frozen in time, resistant to updating or revision, until the potentially harsh arrival of that unlikely scenario – the market crash, the scientific discovery, the personal revelation – demonstrates forcefully that 'unlikely' never meant 'impossible'. Cultivating intellectual humility, acknowledging the limits of our knowledge, and remaining open to revision is a far more adaptive stance than the brittle confidence of false certainty (see also [[8. Chaos reveals who I really am, and power only magnifies it.]]).